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My percentage on primary picks

Aug 24, 2012 - By Steven R. Peck

The news Thursday that the Republican primary election for Fremont County Commission District 2 had some incorrect ballots might play a role in the official outcome of the election. Reporter Martin Reed wrote about the error Thursday in a page-one story

The ballot boo-boo also might play a part in a much -- and I do mean much -- less important matter: my predictions for the primary.

I wrote my usual predictions column Tuesday, and now it's time to see how well I did.

Riverton City Council, Ward 1 --Both Diana Mahoney and Jonathan Faubion advanced to the general election, but I predicted Mahoney would win the primary, which she did.

Riverton City Council, Ward 2 -- On Tuesday I wrote "two will advance, and I predict those two will be Martinez and Smith." The two who advanced were Martinez and Smith.

Riverton City Council, Ward 3 -- Both Larry Bauman and Lars Baker, the incumbent, advanced. I picked Baker to run first, and he did.

Lander City Council -- I was right when I predicted that Ken Stroh and Cade Maestas would run close in Ward 2, but wrong when I guessed that Maestas would have the edge. Stroh did.

In Lander Ward 1, I was half right. I bet that Dan Hahn and John Boulette would be the finalists. Hahn advanced, but Boulette didn't.

Shoshoni Town Council -- I predicted success for Ken Cundall, Brandy Hague and Bill Marcus. They all advanced.

Fremont County Commission, District 2 -- This is the race where the ballot error took place. Here's what I wrote: "Christensen to win, Larry Allen second." That's the way it stands -- for now.

Fremont County Commission, District 5 -- I wrote that I would believe Doug Thompson could lose an election in Fremont County when I see it. I didn't see it.

Wyoming House, District 28 -- I was 0-2 here in this redrawn district that sucks Shoshoni in with Thermopolis and other areas that aren't Fremont County. It still feel odd. I picked Echo Renner on the Republican side, but she finished a close second. My rhetorical coin flip favored Leyba over Skates among the Democrats, but Skates won.

Wyoming House, District 33 -- "I give the edge in the primary to Jim Allen over Daniel Cardenas," I wrote Tuesday. Allen won, but it wasn't by an "edge." It was a landslide.

Wyoming House, District 34 -- My words Tuesday: "In a countywide vote of the old style, I would give the edge to Herbst, who has run by far the most visible campaign. But Campbell polled very well two years ago against a strong primary field in her district, and I think she can survive this challenge." She did just that. Campbell will return to the House for a second term.

Wyoming House, District 54 -- I wrote "Don't be shocked if Larsen prevails, but if I had to bet a buck it would be on Oakley." Wrong. Larsen had the performance of the primary, crushing the Lander field. I predicted Michelle Hoffman over Bruce Palmer, but Palmer defeated Hoffman. School board familiarity was a big bonus for Palmer.

U.S. Senate -- Tim Chesnut was my bet to win the Democratic primary and "the honor of being slaughtered in November by Republican John Barrasso," as I wrote Tuesday. Chesnut did, indeed, win the Democratic primary.

See you again Nov. 6, but I'll go out on a limb here and now. Barrasso to win the general.
 

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